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Invasive
weeds pose a significant threat to global agriculture
productivity – and their threat will become more pronounced if the earth’s
climate is affected by increased greenhouse gas concentration, according to a
Flinders University climate researcher.
Working with computer models to predict
the likely impact of climate change on invasive weed propagation, Dr. Farzin
Shabani from Flinders University’s Global Ecology Lab found a likely increase
in areas of habitat suitability for the majority of IWS (invasive weed species)
in European countries, parts of the US and Australia, posing a great potential
danger to global biodiversity.
In predicting the impact of climate
change on current and future global distributions of invasive weed species, Dr.
Shabani also found that existing attempts to eradicate invasive populations are
inadequate.
Dr. Shabani and an international team
of researchers investigated 32 globally important Invasive Weed Species to
assess whether climate alteration may lead to spatial changes in the overlapping
of specific IWS globally.
“We aimed to evaluate the potential
alterations – whether that be a gain, loss or static – in the number of
potential ecoregion invasions by IWS, under climate change scenarios,” says Dr.
Shabani. “We utilised all possible greenhouse gas concentration to examine a
range of possible outcomes.”
The paper – Invasive weed species’
threats to global biodiversity: Future scenarios of changes in the number of
invasive species in a changing climate, by Farzin Shabani, Mohsen Ahmadi, Lalit
Kumar, Samaneh Solhjouy-fard, Mahyat Shafapour Tehrany, Fariborz Shabani,
Bahareh Kalantar and Atefeh Esmaeili – has been published in the journal
Ecological Indicators (https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolind.2020.106436).
Initially, the researchers modelled the
current climatic suitability of habitat for each of the weeds, identifying
those with a common spatial range of suitability. They then modelled the
suitability of all 32 species under the projected climate for 2050,
incorporating different scenarios.
The final methodological step compared
the extent of overlaps and alterations of weed habitats under the current and
future projected climates.
“Under future climatic conditions, our
results mainly predicted decrease on a global scale, with reduced areas of
habitat suitable for most Invasive Weed Species – but significantly this
excluded European countries, northern Brazil, eastern US, and south-eastern
Australia, which are all highly productive agricultural regions,” says Dr.
Shabani.
The study also revealed that Invasive
Weed Species would most likely develop alterations in their habitat suitability
in most parts of the world in the future.
“Even though our future projections
indicate a decreasing rate in threats from invasive weeds in extensive areas
across the world, the current distributions of many species still have a
potential for expansion,” says Dr. Shabani.
“Many of these invasive weeds pose a
threat in suitable habitats under both current and future climate conditions.”
Dr. Shabani is concerned that Invasive
Weed Species are rarely mentioned in biodiversity policy documents, except to
focus on a few high-profile species. “There are no comprehensive national
invasive species statutory controls, which is our concern,” he says. “We
believe that a national framework is needed for prevention and early detection,
along with a coherent policy framework, a robust monitoring framework, a fund
for strategic research, and a national training and action program.”
by Flinders University
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